再次回顾4%规则

为退休储蓄并不容易, 但明智地使用你的退休储蓄也同样具有挑战性. 你每年可以取多少钱? 提款太多,你就会面临资金耗尽的风险. Withdraw too little and you may miss out on a more comfortable retirement lifestyle.



超过25年了, 最常见的准则是“4%规则”,” which suggests that a withdrawal equal to 4% of the initial portfolio value, 通货膨胀每年都在增加, 退休30年还能持续吗. This guideline can be helpful in projecting a savings goal and providing a realistic picture of the annual income your savings might provide. 例如, 一个100万美元的投资组合可以提供40美元,000 of income in the first year with inflation-adjusted withdrawals in succeeding years.

The 4% rule has stimulated a great deal of discussion over the years, with some experts saying 4% is too low and others saying it’s too high. 最近的分析来自于发明它的人, 金融专业人士威廉·本根, who believes the rule has been misunderstood and offers new insights based on new research.

原始研究

本根在1994年首次发表了他的发现, based on analyzing data for retirements beginning in 51 different years, 从1926年到1976年. 他考虑了一个假设, conservative portfolio comprising 50% large-cap stocks and 50% intermediate-term Treasury bonds held in a tax-advantaged account and rebalanced annually. A 4% inflation-adjusted withdrawal was the highest sustainable rate in the worst-case scenario — retirement in October 1968, 熊市和长期高通胀的开始. All other retirement years had higher sustainable rates, some as high as 10% or more.1

当然, 没有人能预测未来, which is why Bengen suggested the worst-case scenario as a sustainable rate. 后来他将其略微调高到4.5%, 基于更多样化的投资组合,其中包括30%的大盘股, 20%的小型股, 50%的中期国债.2

一项新的研究

2020年10月, Bengen published new research that attempts to project a sustainable withdrawal rate based on two key factors at the time of retirement: stock market valuation and inflation (annual change in the Consumer Price Index). 在理论上, 当市场价格昂贵时, 它的增长潜力较小, 随着时间的推移,维持不断增加的取款可能会更加困难. 另一方面, 更低的通胀率意味着扣除通胀因素后的取款也更少, 允许更高的初始速率. 例如, a $40,第一年提取的000美元变成了84美元,000 withdrawal after 20 years with a 4% annual inflation increase but just $58,000,增长2%.

衡量市场估值, 本根使用了席勒CAPE, S&由诺贝尔奖得主罗伯特·席勒开发的P 500指数. The price-earnings (P/E) ratio of a stock is the share price divided by its earnings per share for the previous 12 months. 例如, 如果股票定价为100美元,每股收益为4美元, 市盈率将是25倍. 希勒CAPE除以S&按10年经通胀调整后的平均收益计算的p500指数.

5%规则?

Again using historical data — for retirement dates from 1926 to 1990 — Bengen found a clear correlation between market valuation and inflation at the time of retirement and the maximum sustainable withdrawal rate. 从历史上看,利率低至4.5%到13%, 但支持高利率的情况不同寻常, with very low market valuations and/or deflation rather than inflation.3

过去25年的大部分时间里, 美国经历了高市场估值, 自大衰退以来,通货膨胀率一直很低.4–5 在一个高估值, 退休时的低通胀情景, Bengen found that a 5% initial withdrawal rate was sustainable over 30 years.6 虽然和4%的规则没有太大区别, 这表明,退休人员可能会提前取更多的钱, 特别是在低通胀环境下.

需要注意的是,目前的市场估值非常高&P 500指数的CAPE为33.12月30日, 2020, a level only reached (and exceeded) during the late-1990s dot-com boom and higher than any of the scenarios in Bengen’s research.7 His range for a 5% withdrawal rate is a CAPE of 23 or higher, with inflation between 0% and 2.5%.8 (通货膨胀率1.2020年11月2%.)9 Bengen’s research suggests that if market valuation drops near the historical mean of 16.77, a withdrawal rate of 6% might be sustainable as long as inflation is 5% or lower. 另一方面, if valuation remains high and inflation surpasses 2.5%,最大可持续增长率可能是4.5%.10

It’s important to keep in mind that these projections are based on historical scenarios and a hypothetical portfolio, and there is no guarantee that your portfolio will perform in a similar manner. Also remember that these calculations are based on annual inflation-adjusted withdrawals, and you might choose not to increase withdrawals in some years or use other criteria to make adjustments, 例如市场表现.

Although there is no assurance that working with a financial professional will improve 投资 results, a professional can evaluate your objectives and available resources and help you consider appropriate long-term financial strategies, 包括你的退出策略.

All 投资s are subject to market fluctuation, risk, and loss of principal. When sold, 投资s may be worth more or less than their original cost. U.S. Treasury securities are guaranteed by the federal government as to the timely payment of principal and interest. The principal value of Treasury securities fluctuates with market conditions. If not held to maturity, they could be worth more or less than the original amount paid. Asset allocation and diversification are methods used to help manage 投资 risk; they do not guarantee a profit or protect against 投资 loss. Rebalancing involves selling some 投资s in order to buy others; selling 投资s in a taxable account could result in a tax liability.

的年代&P 500 index is an unmanaged group of securities considered representative of the U.S. 股票市场概况. The performance of an unmanaged index is not indicative of the performance of any specific 投资. 个人不能直接投资于指数. 过去的表现并不能保证未来的结果. 实际结果会有所不同.